Re: PART 3 ANTI-ANTI-NAZI BARBARIAN HORDES ARE KNOCKING DOWN
Posted: Fri May 29, 2026 7:40 am
U.S. And Iran Are Climbing Up The Escalation Ladder Again
Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris
May 28, 2026
On May 27, the U.S. military launched strikes on the airport of Bandar Abbas, the largest Iranian City on the Strait of Hormuz.
In the early hours of May 28, Iran responded by attacking a U.S. military base in Kuwait.
This is the first time since the ceasefire went into effect between Iran and the U.S. that Iran has attacked a U.S. military base in the Persian Gulf.
Dimitri Lascaris examines the competing accounts of how this latest flare-up of violence began. He also discusses the reaction of oil traders to these developments, and the worsening crisis in global oil markets.
Transcript
Good day. This is Dimitri Lascaris coming to you for Reason to Resist from Kamata, Greece on May 28th, 2026.
Well, within the past , the Trump regime has engaged in yet another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and
did so again at a time when it purports to be seeking a peace deal with Iran.
This of course is entirely consistent with the repeated theme of our reporting on this conflict which is that the Trump
regime has no interest in peace. Uh that this is nothing but a charade designed to suppress the price of oil and to
convince the world and especially US voters that the Trump regime is doing everything it can giving it the old college try to try to avoid further
armed conflict. But yet we see as we have within the past that it repeatedly behaves in ways that are
profoundly contrary with its uh stated objectives. So as to what happened last night, let's begin with the uh account
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps uh and then we'll turn to the account of the US military. This is a report or a
summary of uh a statement made by the RE IRGC Navy. This summary appeared on Geopolitics Prime, a Telegram channel
that I follow. And um the Geopolitics Prime uh uh moderator said that the
totally destroyed Iranian Navy forced a US tanker to turn back. Uh the report coming from the IRGC Navy is that a US
oil tanker allegedly tried to sneak through the street of Hormuz with its radar system switched off. Uh this is based on a military source speaking to
the Iranian media outlet Tasnim. The IRGC Navy reportedly spotted it, fired warning shots, and forced the vessel to
stop and turn back. The US then responded by striking what the source described as a scorched area near Bandar
Abbas uh and specifically the Bandar Abbas airport and uh the IRGC uh states that there were no casualties
and no damage. And then uh later on we got an official statement from the IRGC uh and it said that following an early
morning attack by the US on a point near Bandad Ababas airport using projectiles today. The IRGC retaliated against a US air base from which the attack
originated at 4:50 a.m. This response is a serious warning so that the enemy knows aggression will not go unanswered.
If it is repeated, our response will be more decisive. The responsibility for the consequences lies with the aggressor. Now here is what sentcom and
this is the uh segment of the United States military uh that is uh responsible for the region of West Asia.
It put out a statement as follows at 10:17 p.m. uh Eastern time. So this would be approximately
uh the time that the IRGC said it launched a missile at the US military base at Kuwait. uh Iran launched a
ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces. Of course, there's been no uh
footage revealed which uh suggests that this is true. Uh but at the end of the day, uh I'm not in a position to say whether it is or is not true. And the
Sencom statement goes on and says, "This egregious ceasefire violation by the Iranian regime occurred hours after Iranian forces launched five one-way
attack drones that posed a clear threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz.
Notice that it doesn't say to whom the threat was posed. Setcom just says a threat. A threat to whom. Uh it doesn't
mention that a US oil tanker tried to pass through the street of Hormuz reportedly uh without the consent of the
Iranian military. And then the uh US uh sentcom says that all drones were successfully intercepted
uh by US forces which also prevented a sixth drone launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bander Abbas.
US Central Command and regional partners remained vigilant and measured as we continue to defend our forces and interests from unjustified Iranian aggression. Now, let's just recall the
context here, my friends. The context is that the United States and Israel have launched a war of aggression. No lawful
justification for this war that began on February 28th. It follows another war in June of last year, the 12-day war, which
they also launched in violation of the UN charter with no lawful justification against Iran. They've killed thousands of civilians in Iran. They've probably
caused tens of billions of dollars worth of damage to uh Iranian infrastructure.
They're doing everything they can to destroy the Iranian economy. All of this in violation of international law.
There's no question that the US poses an existential threat to Iran as does Israel with its nuclear arsenal and the
full backing of the United States and other Western countries as well. So, uh it is entirely understandable that the Iranians would say we're not going to
allow any US vessels, whether they be commercial, purportedly commercial or obviously military, through the Straight of Hormuz uh because we don't trust you.
We don't want any vessels that are associated with the United States going through the straight of Hormuz while you are engaged in a war of aggression
against us. Uh and yet uh and by the way the Iranian account has not been denied by the US. There were ambiguities in
Sentcom's statement. Uh so they don't deny that there was a US tanker that tried to sneak through the straight of Hormuz by turning off uh the uh the
equipment that would have allowed it to be detected. uh that it did that it attempted to pass through the straight of Homus without the permission of the Iranian military. They deny none of
that. Uh and they don't deny that the drones were fired at that vessel as a warning which is what the IRGC says. Uh
so in the context I think it's entirely reasonable for the Iranians to say we will not allow any US affiliated vessels
to pass through the straight of Hormuz without our permission and according to whatever conditions we may impose.
Nonetheless, there was an attempt made and uh it seems to me that what happened here is that the United States was I
can't believe that a US affiliated vessel, a tanker would attempt to transit the straight of Hormamoose, particularly in a stealth manner without first consulting with the US military.
This was probably coordinated, in fact, it was probably done uh at the direction of the US military. some empty tanker
affiliated with the United States attempted this so that uh they would provoke the entirely predictable reaction of the Iranian military which
fired warning shots and then they would use that as a pretext to attack land-based targets in Iran. Uh that's
exactly what they did and this time the Iranians responded uh not simply by firing on US naval vessels but firing
upon a US military base in the Persian Gulf. uh something that I uh as far as I can tell, as far as I know, they have
not done at any point during this ceasefire. So, this is taking it up uh the escalation ladder. Uh again, the
Iranian military is demonstrating that it will respond to escalations with their own escalations. And where this will end, probably in another full-blown
hot war. Uh and all because that's exactly what the United States and Israel want. They want to resume the war while trying to make it look as though
it was the fault of the Iranians. Now, uh the IRGC also published uh footage of the missile launch or missiles launched
at the Kuwait air base or I'm sorry, the US military base in Kuwait. Uh and here is the uh the video in question.
Heat up here.
Now, uh although you saw several launches there, uh that may well have been uh multiple angles of one single
launch, uh it does appear that only one ballistic missile was launched. But as I say, this appears to be a first uh
during uh the ceasefire. And although the claim is being made that it was inter intercepted, uh you know, the corporate media in the United States uh
supported by satellite imagery have established that uh the US military bases throughout the Gulf and particularly in Kuwait took an absolute
beating as a result of missile and drone attacks from the Adani military. So absent any evidence, I wouldn't assume
that this was intercepted. Also uh during the ceasefire or alleged ceasefire uh there has been a massive
buildup of US military uh forces in the Persian Gulf. And there's good reason to believe that a lot of the forces that have been brought into the Gulf during
the ceasefire uh have been uh located or uh stationed temporarily in Kuwait. Uh
so that is probably um a at this stage a somewhat targetrich environment. Uh but for the time being uh there are no
credible reports of uh damage or casualties at the US military base in uh Kuwait. We'll continue to follow that uh as this story unfolds.
Now the Kuwaitis for their part acknowledged that their air defenses became engaged. They said it was not only one missile. They used the phrase
missiles and drones uh fired at the Kuwaiti military base. And uh at this stage when this report was issued uh and
and published by Geopolitics Prime, another telegram channel, the Kuwait Army general staff was uh stating uh that they were in the process of
responding to hostile missile and drone attacks. And the the military warned that explosion sounds heard across Kuwait are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets.
However, at that stage, uh they did not say that they had intercepted all of the incoming uh projectiles. Uh as one would
expect this caused a spike in the price of oil. Uh you can see here uh the uh
day's results uh in trading in oil on oil price o oilpric.com there was a 2.57%
increase in the price of a barrel of bent Brent crude to 9671 uh US dollar 9671 for reasons that uh
11 minutesare mystifying uh the price of Brent crude uh remains below $100 per barrel even though earlier in this ceasefire
when the United States and Iran weren't firing at each other. Uh the uh the price of a barrel of Brent crude was
well above $100. So why it would be below $100 at this stage with uh you know direct now uh conflict uh between
not only the naval forces of Iran and the United States but also uh land-based uh military targets on both sides. Uh
that is truly uh mystifying and one wonders you know just what uh confidence one can place in the uh uh the uh the
judgments of oil traders nowadays uh whom I have described previously as terminally stupid. Uh now uh meanwhile
the United the Iranian military reported that it allowed 26 ships to pass through the straight of Hormuz with the IRGC's
permission. It stated uh that the receiving permission and coordinating for passage through the strait is mandatory. As previously announced, passage through other routes is
considered a disruption and will be dealt with. Last night, several ships attempted to enter the Persian Gulf illegally by tampering with and turning off their navigation system. So, here
we're being told it wasn't just one ship, there were several. And after several rounds of radio warnings, I urg Navy forces stopped two of them in place while the rest were forced to turn back.
I wonder what that means. Stop them in place. Uh does that mean that they were seized? That that means that that they are now uh stuck in a place where they
are completely surrounded by Iranian military forces that they're unable uh to move out of the straight in either direction. Unclear at this stage. In any
case, the uh IRGC Navy went on and said the terrorist US military in the region violated the ceasefire by firing several missiles at empty areas of Bandar Abbas
airport which caused no damage and uh so forth. Now again 26 ships passed through the straight of Hormuz in the past 24
hours according to the IRGC uh with its permission. This is in fact consistent
with uh uh the data that appears on the straight of Hornmuse's live tracker. Now it's a little bit small but if you look
at the center of this image on the right side you'll see that within uh the past 26 ships uh it has stated uh
have passed. And if you look in the lower left hand corner, you'll see the number of four in red. That is the number of ships that are transiting
right now. Now, while this is a significant increase, 26 vessels from the average number of ships that have passed through the straight of Hoduza
during uh this uh uh this war of aggression on Iran. It's only approximately 16%
of the vessels the average daily number of vessels that was passing through the straight of Hammoose before uh the war of aggression was launched. Uh so uh
this is not nearly enough to significantly alleviate uh the uh burgeoning oil crisis in the world today.
Now oilprice.com published yet another alarming article about the state of the uh global oil supplies. Uh this uh was
published yesterday. Uh the author Iran Slav, one of the analysts at oilprice.com, who's been doing some fine
reporting on how dire the situation is becoming uh has authored an article entitled shrinking oil inventories raised fears of prolonged energy crisis.
I'll take a couple of minutes to take you through this. It is uh quite important I think. uh you'll see that uh at the very beginning of the article she
writes global oil inventories are fast approaching a critical point with Asia the first facing minimum operational levels in Europe close behind. This is
the latest in a growing series of warnings from industry experts about the state of oil supply and the prospects of a severe shortage. It seems the world is
running out of time to avert a much bigger crisis than we already have. Asia is already struggling with supply. Jeff Curry, senior adviser at the Carala
Group, told CNBC this week, speaking on the sidelines of an industry event, he said, "The energy market, uh, we've seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel
has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel." The problem is not
isolated to Singapore. Uh, she writes with total Asian stocks already on the brink of minimum operational level. Uh this is actually coming from uh this analyst uh Curry from the Carile Group.
And uh in that Curry took a more pessimistic or possibly realistic stance on the state of inventories than his former colleagues from Goldman Sachs who
earlier this month said they did not expect global inventories of crude oil to reach minimum operational levels this summer. Although they acknowledged that the situation with supply is
challenging. Curry is saying that they're going to reach those levels in July. Uh global oil inventories were quote unlikely to hit minimum
operational levels this summer. The speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions of products is concerning.
Goldman said Goldman by the way is perennially optimistic. Always juicing the market. Uh I think uh I I I attach
greater weight to what this analyst Curry is saying. Uh and Goldman's analysts uh she writes issued a fresh warning as they reported that April
draws from in inventories had run at double double the rate until the end of March. So, they're drawing down inventories at an accelerating rate. The
article goes on and says, "Summer is shaping up to be much hotter than usual in energy markets with the International Energy AY's head recently warning oil
was about to reach the red zone in July or August." Uh, and then she goes on and says, "According to Carile's Curry,
Europe has less than that uh before it meets the oil shortage head on. It may be painful because all of the info in inventories that are drawing out of the
United States out of the US strategic petroleum reserve are being exported into Europe. So the Europeans think they have no problem because they're getting
all of this oil being imported from the United States. Uh so the US is basically it seems selling probably this oil at a
premium to Europe. Uh and in the process drawing down rapidly its own strategic reserve. Uh and what's worse uh
according to Curry, the crunch will not spare the United States either with shortages being uh beginning to be felt by July. Quote, I would say Asia, you're
there. Europe, give it about another month and look for July being a problem in the US, he said, even as traders continue to focus on straight statements by Trump. Amazing that these terminally
stupid traders attach any weight to anything Trump says about this conflict.
Uh, in any case, uh, she goes on and writes that, uh, Brent crude is back below $100 today after topping the
three-digit threshold on Tuesday after a fresh round of US missile strikes. This prompted the latter to state the US had violated the ceasefire and so forth. And
finally, I just want to share with you u couple of items. Uh, first of all, uh, some really dire numbers coming from the World Bank for the Gulf autotocracies.
The World Bank has downgraded growth in the uh GCC economies from 4.4% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026.
And uh this uh summary goes on and says uh that Saudi Arabia's growth is projected to slow from 4.3 in 2025 to 3.1 in 2026. The UAE's from 5% to 2.4%.
So 50% reduction and katus is catastrophic. Its outlook has dropped sharply by 11 points with growth now a
5.7 contraction percent contraction instead of a 5.3% expansion. This may
explain why Qatar Qatar is apparently based on reports uh trying to play uh a more assertive role in bringing this
catastrophic war to an end. Kuwait is expected to contract by 6 point 6.4% even more than Qatar reversing a prior
2.6% 6% growth uh forecast. Badain's growth has seen easing from 3.1 to 1.3.
So that's well over a 50% reduction.
Oman by contrast is uh fairing uh much less worse with a 3.6% uh projected projection to uh downgraded to 2.4%.
That is growth for 20 estimated growth for 2026.
And the last thing I want to share with you uh is uh an insane statement by Donald Trump. Mr.
President, Iran wants control of the straight over Moose. Would you accept a short-term deal that allows Iran and Oman to control the strait? And would
they have to open it immediately or would you be open to that happening over a period of time?
No. The strait's going to be open to everybody. It's uh And who would control it?
It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have.
They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else. So, we'll have to blow
them up. They understand that. They'll be fine.
Mr. M, just just look at uh Narco Rubio's face and Hex's face when he says we have to
blow them up like everybody else who will have to blow them up. They understand that. They'll be fine. Mr. Mr. M.
Yeah, they did their best to keep their poker face on, but uh uh I I suspect that they weren't consulted about the
Donald's plan to blow up Oman if it cooperates in uh Iran's management of the Strait of Hormuz. So, let's be very
clear here. Oman has not threatened to strike the United States. It's never committed any active aggression or threatened to commit any active aggression to the United States. It's
not suicidal. It would not even contemplate doing such a thing.
uh if in fact it cooperated with Iran uh in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, even if that was a violation of
international law, it would not justify the United States in blowing up Oman.
Notice he didn't say that they would attack Iran's mil Oman's navy or its military or its government. He talked
about the country blowing up the country. This man is truly an insane psychopath, folks. Uh and that's just one of the many reasons why no one
should think that this catastrophic war is going to end well and that he's going to find some diplomatic solution out of the disaster that he has created. Uh he
is uh now threatening uh to uh demolish an entire country based upon you know the possibility that it might cooperate
with Iran in the management of the strait. Uh, and by the way, if this insane threat from Donald Trump deters
the uh the government of Oman from cooperating with Iran uh in the uh
management of the strait and in particular the collection of fees from vessels that are transiting the straight. This isn't going to hurt Iran.
Iran doesn't need the cooperation of Oman to control the straight of Hormuz.
It can do that all by itself and there's nothing that Oman can do militarily or economically to prevent Iran from uh
from controlling the Strait of Hormuz and imposing fees on ships that pass through it. So if the result of this uh
extraordinary threat, this lunatic threat from Trump is to convince Oman's government that it can't take any part
of the fees that Iran is charging to these vessels and will charge to them in the future. All that's going to happen, I would imagine, is that Iran's going to
end up keeping 100 100% of the fees instead of sharing them with Oman. So, in effect, this uh latest act of lunacy
from the Donald uh has the potential to uh make Iran even richer. Uh but such is
the uh utter insanity coming out of the uh the White House nowadays. We will continue to follow the story. Uh, you know, I I I'm sorry to sound like a
broken record, but please do try to filter out all this noise about these negotiations, these offers going back and forth. While I completely understand
why the Iranian government is engaging in these discussions, even if there's only a 5% chance of them succeeding, as I've said before, it's the responsible
thing for the Iranian government to engage. But the overwhelming likelihood is that there will be no peace deal. And
even if one is signed, it's a virtual certainty that both the United States and Israel will violate it six ways from Sunday. And uh this thing is not going
to end by means of any uh you know collegial negotiation. Uh I think we are
headed into uh extraordinarily turbulent waters economically. This is Demetri Lcera signing off from Kalamata, Greece on May 28th, 2026.
Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris
May 28, 2026
On May 27, the U.S. military launched strikes on the airport of Bandar Abbas, the largest Iranian City on the Strait of Hormuz.
In the early hours of May 28, Iran responded by attacking a U.S. military base in Kuwait.
This is the first time since the ceasefire went into effect between Iran and the U.S. that Iran has attacked a U.S. military base in the Persian Gulf.
Dimitri Lascaris examines the competing accounts of how this latest flare-up of violence began. He also discusses the reaction of oil traders to these developments, and the worsening crisis in global oil markets.
Transcript
Good day. This is Dimitri Lascaris coming to you for Reason to Resist from Kamata, Greece on May 28th, 2026.
Well, within the past , the Trump regime has engaged in yet another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and
did so again at a time when it purports to be seeking a peace deal with Iran.
This of course is entirely consistent with the repeated theme of our reporting on this conflict which is that the Trump
regime has no interest in peace. Uh that this is nothing but a charade designed to suppress the price of oil and to
convince the world and especially US voters that the Trump regime is doing everything it can giving it the old college try to try to avoid further
armed conflict. But yet we see as we have within the past that it repeatedly behaves in ways that are
profoundly contrary with its uh stated objectives. So as to what happened last night, let's begin with the uh account
of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps uh and then we'll turn to the account of the US military. This is a report or a
summary of uh a statement made by the RE IRGC Navy. This summary appeared on Geopolitics Prime, a Telegram channel
that I follow. And um the Geopolitics Prime uh uh moderator said that the
totally destroyed Iranian Navy forced a US tanker to turn back. Uh the report coming from the IRGC Navy is that a US
oil tanker allegedly tried to sneak through the street of Hormuz with its radar system switched off. Uh this is based on a military source speaking to
the Iranian media outlet Tasnim. The IRGC Navy reportedly spotted it, fired warning shots, and forced the vessel to
stop and turn back. The US then responded by striking what the source described as a scorched area near Bandar
Abbas uh and specifically the Bandar Abbas airport and uh the IRGC uh states that there were no casualties
and no damage. And then uh later on we got an official statement from the IRGC uh and it said that following an early
morning attack by the US on a point near Bandad Ababas airport using projectiles today. The IRGC retaliated against a US air base from which the attack
originated at 4:50 a.m. This response is a serious warning so that the enemy knows aggression will not go unanswered.
If it is repeated, our response will be more decisive. The responsibility for the consequences lies with the aggressor. Now here is what sentcom and
this is the uh segment of the United States military uh that is uh responsible for the region of West Asia.
It put out a statement as follows at 10:17 p.m. uh Eastern time. So this would be approximately
uh the time that the IRGC said it launched a missile at the US military base at Kuwait. uh Iran launched a
ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces. Of course, there's been no uh
footage revealed which uh suggests that this is true. Uh but at the end of the day, uh I'm not in a position to say whether it is or is not true. And the
Sencom statement goes on and says, "This egregious ceasefire violation by the Iranian regime occurred hours after Iranian forces launched five one-way
attack drones that posed a clear threat in and near the Strait of Hormuz.
Notice that it doesn't say to whom the threat was posed. Setcom just says a threat. A threat to whom. Uh it doesn't
mention that a US oil tanker tried to pass through the street of Hormuz reportedly uh without the consent of the
Iranian military. And then the uh US uh sentcom says that all drones were successfully intercepted
uh by US forces which also prevented a sixth drone launch from an Iranian ground control site in Bander Abbas.
US Central Command and regional partners remained vigilant and measured as we continue to defend our forces and interests from unjustified Iranian aggression. Now, let's just recall the
context here, my friends. The context is that the United States and Israel have launched a war of aggression. No lawful
justification for this war that began on February 28th. It follows another war in June of last year, the 12-day war, which
they also launched in violation of the UN charter with no lawful justification against Iran. They've killed thousands of civilians in Iran. They've probably
caused tens of billions of dollars worth of damage to uh Iranian infrastructure.
They're doing everything they can to destroy the Iranian economy. All of this in violation of international law.
There's no question that the US poses an existential threat to Iran as does Israel with its nuclear arsenal and the
full backing of the United States and other Western countries as well. So, uh it is entirely understandable that the Iranians would say we're not going to
allow any US vessels, whether they be commercial, purportedly commercial or obviously military, through the Straight of Hormuz uh because we don't trust you.
We don't want any vessels that are associated with the United States going through the straight of Hormuz while you are engaged in a war of aggression
against us. Uh and yet uh and by the way the Iranian account has not been denied by the US. There were ambiguities in
Sentcom's statement. Uh so they don't deny that there was a US tanker that tried to sneak through the straight of Hormuz by turning off uh the uh the
equipment that would have allowed it to be detected. uh that it did that it attempted to pass through the straight of Homus without the permission of the Iranian military. They deny none of
that. Uh and they don't deny that the drones were fired at that vessel as a warning which is what the IRGC says. Uh
so in the context I think it's entirely reasonable for the Iranians to say we will not allow any US affiliated vessels
to pass through the straight of Hormuz without our permission and according to whatever conditions we may impose.
Nonetheless, there was an attempt made and uh it seems to me that what happened here is that the United States was I
can't believe that a US affiliated vessel, a tanker would attempt to transit the straight of Hormamoose, particularly in a stealth manner without first consulting with the US military.
This was probably coordinated, in fact, it was probably done uh at the direction of the US military. some empty tanker
affiliated with the United States attempted this so that uh they would provoke the entirely predictable reaction of the Iranian military which
fired warning shots and then they would use that as a pretext to attack land-based targets in Iran. Uh that's
exactly what they did and this time the Iranians responded uh not simply by firing on US naval vessels but firing
upon a US military base in the Persian Gulf. uh something that I uh as far as I can tell, as far as I know, they have
not done at any point during this ceasefire. So, this is taking it up uh the escalation ladder. Uh again, the
Iranian military is demonstrating that it will respond to escalations with their own escalations. And where this will end, probably in another full-blown
hot war. Uh and all because that's exactly what the United States and Israel want. They want to resume the war while trying to make it look as though
it was the fault of the Iranians. Now, uh the IRGC also published uh footage of the missile launch or missiles launched
at the Kuwait air base or I'm sorry, the US military base in Kuwait. Uh and here is the uh the video in question.
Heat up here.
Now, uh although you saw several launches there, uh that may well have been uh multiple angles of one single
launch, uh it does appear that only one ballistic missile was launched. But as I say, this appears to be a first uh
during uh the ceasefire. And although the claim is being made that it was inter intercepted, uh you know, the corporate media in the United States uh
supported by satellite imagery have established that uh the US military bases throughout the Gulf and particularly in Kuwait took an absolute
beating as a result of missile and drone attacks from the Adani military. So absent any evidence, I wouldn't assume
that this was intercepted. Also uh during the ceasefire or alleged ceasefire uh there has been a massive
buildup of US military uh forces in the Persian Gulf. And there's good reason to believe that a lot of the forces that have been brought into the Gulf during
the ceasefire uh have been uh located or uh stationed temporarily in Kuwait. Uh
so that is probably um a at this stage a somewhat targetrich environment. Uh but for the time being uh there are no
credible reports of uh damage or casualties at the US military base in uh Kuwait. We'll continue to follow that uh as this story unfolds.
Now the Kuwaitis for their part acknowledged that their air defenses became engaged. They said it was not only one missile. They used the phrase
missiles and drones uh fired at the Kuwaiti military base. And uh at this stage when this report was issued uh and
and published by Geopolitics Prime, another telegram channel, the Kuwait Army general staff was uh stating uh that they were in the process of
responding to hostile missile and drone attacks. And the the military warned that explosion sounds heard across Kuwait are the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets.
However, at that stage, uh they did not say that they had intercepted all of the incoming uh projectiles. Uh as one would
expect this caused a spike in the price of oil. Uh you can see here uh the uh
day's results uh in trading in oil on oil price o oilpric.com there was a 2.57%
increase in the price of a barrel of bent Brent crude to 9671 uh US dollar 9671 for reasons that uh
11 minutesare mystifying uh the price of Brent crude uh remains below $100 per barrel even though earlier in this ceasefire
when the United States and Iran weren't firing at each other. Uh the uh the price of a barrel of Brent crude was
well above $100. So why it would be below $100 at this stage with uh you know direct now uh conflict uh between
not only the naval forces of Iran and the United States but also uh land-based uh military targets on both sides. Uh
that is truly uh mystifying and one wonders you know just what uh confidence one can place in the uh uh the uh the
judgments of oil traders nowadays uh whom I have described previously as terminally stupid. Uh now uh meanwhile
the United the Iranian military reported that it allowed 26 ships to pass through the straight of Hormuz with the IRGC's
permission. It stated uh that the receiving permission and coordinating for passage through the strait is mandatory. As previously announced, passage through other routes is
considered a disruption and will be dealt with. Last night, several ships attempted to enter the Persian Gulf illegally by tampering with and turning off their navigation system. So, here
we're being told it wasn't just one ship, there were several. And after several rounds of radio warnings, I urg Navy forces stopped two of them in place while the rest were forced to turn back.
I wonder what that means. Stop them in place. Uh does that mean that they were seized? That that means that that they are now uh stuck in a place where they
are completely surrounded by Iranian military forces that they're unable uh to move out of the straight in either direction. Unclear at this stage. In any
case, the uh IRGC Navy went on and said the terrorist US military in the region violated the ceasefire by firing several missiles at empty areas of Bandar Abbas
airport which caused no damage and uh so forth. Now again 26 ships passed through the straight of Hormuz in the past 24
hours according to the IRGC uh with its permission. This is in fact consistent
with uh uh the data that appears on the straight of Hornmuse's live tracker. Now it's a little bit small but if you look
at the center of this image on the right side you'll see that within uh the past 26 ships uh it has stated uh
have passed. And if you look in the lower left hand corner, you'll see the number of four in red. That is the number of ships that are transiting
right now. Now, while this is a significant increase, 26 vessels from the average number of ships that have passed through the straight of Hoduza
during uh this uh uh this war of aggression on Iran. It's only approximately 16%
of the vessels the average daily number of vessels that was passing through the straight of Hammoose before uh the war of aggression was launched. Uh so uh
this is not nearly enough to significantly alleviate uh the uh burgeoning oil crisis in the world today.
Now oilprice.com published yet another alarming article about the state of the uh global oil supplies. Uh this uh was
published yesterday. Uh the author Iran Slav, one of the analysts at oilprice.com, who's been doing some fine
reporting on how dire the situation is becoming uh has authored an article entitled shrinking oil inventories raised fears of prolonged energy crisis.
I'll take a couple of minutes to take you through this. It is uh quite important I think. uh you'll see that uh at the very beginning of the article she
writes global oil inventories are fast approaching a critical point with Asia the first facing minimum operational levels in Europe close behind. This is
the latest in a growing series of warnings from industry experts about the state of oil supply and the prospects of a severe shortage. It seems the world is
running out of time to avert a much bigger crisis than we already have. Asia is already struggling with supply. Jeff Curry, senior adviser at the Carala
Group, told CNBC this week, speaking on the sidelines of an industry event, he said, "The energy market, uh, we've seen explosive prices on products. Jet fuel
has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel." The problem is not
isolated to Singapore. Uh, she writes with total Asian stocks already on the brink of minimum operational level. Uh this is actually coming from uh this analyst uh Curry from the Carile Group.
And uh in that Curry took a more pessimistic or possibly realistic stance on the state of inventories than his former colleagues from Goldman Sachs who
earlier this month said they did not expect global inventories of crude oil to reach minimum operational levels this summer. Although they acknowledged that the situation with supply is
challenging. Curry is saying that they're going to reach those levels in July. Uh global oil inventories were quote unlikely to hit minimum
operational levels this summer. The speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions of products is concerning.
Goldman said Goldman by the way is perennially optimistic. Always juicing the market. Uh I think uh I I I attach
greater weight to what this analyst Curry is saying. Uh and Goldman's analysts uh she writes issued a fresh warning as they reported that April
draws from in inventories had run at double double the rate until the end of March. So, they're drawing down inventories at an accelerating rate. The
article goes on and says, "Summer is shaping up to be much hotter than usual in energy markets with the International Energy AY's head recently warning oil
was about to reach the red zone in July or August." Uh, and then she goes on and says, "According to Carile's Curry,
Europe has less than that uh before it meets the oil shortage head on. It may be painful because all of the info in inventories that are drawing out of the
United States out of the US strategic petroleum reserve are being exported into Europe. So the Europeans think they have no problem because they're getting
all of this oil being imported from the United States. Uh so the US is basically it seems selling probably this oil at a
premium to Europe. Uh and in the process drawing down rapidly its own strategic reserve. Uh and what's worse uh
according to Curry, the crunch will not spare the United States either with shortages being uh beginning to be felt by July. Quote, I would say Asia, you're
there. Europe, give it about another month and look for July being a problem in the US, he said, even as traders continue to focus on straight statements by Trump. Amazing that these terminally
stupid traders attach any weight to anything Trump says about this conflict.
Uh, in any case, uh, she goes on and writes that, uh, Brent crude is back below $100 today after topping the
three-digit threshold on Tuesday after a fresh round of US missile strikes. This prompted the latter to state the US had violated the ceasefire and so forth. And
finally, I just want to share with you u couple of items. Uh, first of all, uh, some really dire numbers coming from the World Bank for the Gulf autotocracies.
The World Bank has downgraded growth in the uh GCC economies from 4.4% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026.
And uh this uh summary goes on and says uh that Saudi Arabia's growth is projected to slow from 4.3 in 2025 to 3.1 in 2026. The UAE's from 5% to 2.4%.
So 50% reduction and katus is catastrophic. Its outlook has dropped sharply by 11 points with growth now a
5.7 contraction percent contraction instead of a 5.3% expansion. This may
explain why Qatar Qatar is apparently based on reports uh trying to play uh a more assertive role in bringing this
catastrophic war to an end. Kuwait is expected to contract by 6 point 6.4% even more than Qatar reversing a prior
2.6% 6% growth uh forecast. Badain's growth has seen easing from 3.1 to 1.3.
So that's well over a 50% reduction.
Oman by contrast is uh fairing uh much less worse with a 3.6% uh projected projection to uh downgraded to 2.4%.
That is growth for 20 estimated growth for 2026.
And the last thing I want to share with you uh is uh an insane statement by Donald Trump. Mr.
President, Iran wants control of the straight over Moose. Would you accept a short-term deal that allows Iran and Oman to control the strait? And would
they have to open it immediately or would you be open to that happening over a period of time?
No. The strait's going to be open to everybody. It's uh And who would control it?
It's international waters. Nobody's going to control it. We're going to watch over it. We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have.
They would like to control it. Nobody's going to control it. It's international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else. So, we'll have to blow
them up. They understand that. They'll be fine.
Mr. M, just just look at uh Narco Rubio's face and Hex's face when he says we have to
blow them up like everybody else who will have to blow them up. They understand that. They'll be fine. Mr. Mr. M.
Yeah, they did their best to keep their poker face on, but uh uh I I suspect that they weren't consulted about the
Donald's plan to blow up Oman if it cooperates in uh Iran's management of the Strait of Hormuz. So, let's be very
clear here. Oman has not threatened to strike the United States. It's never committed any active aggression or threatened to commit any active aggression to the United States. It's
not suicidal. It would not even contemplate doing such a thing.
uh if in fact it cooperated with Iran uh in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, even if that was a violation of
international law, it would not justify the United States in blowing up Oman.
Notice he didn't say that they would attack Iran's mil Oman's navy or its military or its government. He talked
about the country blowing up the country. This man is truly an insane psychopath, folks. Uh and that's just one of the many reasons why no one
should think that this catastrophic war is going to end well and that he's going to find some diplomatic solution out of the disaster that he has created. Uh he
is uh now threatening uh to uh demolish an entire country based upon you know the possibility that it might cooperate
with Iran in the management of the strait. Uh, and by the way, if this insane threat from Donald Trump deters
the uh the government of Oman from cooperating with Iran uh in the uh
management of the strait and in particular the collection of fees from vessels that are transiting the straight. This isn't going to hurt Iran.
Iran doesn't need the cooperation of Oman to control the straight of Hormuz.
It can do that all by itself and there's nothing that Oman can do militarily or economically to prevent Iran from uh
from controlling the Strait of Hormuz and imposing fees on ships that pass through it. So if the result of this uh
extraordinary threat, this lunatic threat from Trump is to convince Oman's government that it can't take any part
of the fees that Iran is charging to these vessels and will charge to them in the future. All that's going to happen, I would imagine, is that Iran's going to
end up keeping 100 100% of the fees instead of sharing them with Oman. So, in effect, this uh latest act of lunacy
from the Donald uh has the potential to uh make Iran even richer. Uh but such is
the uh utter insanity coming out of the uh the White House nowadays. We will continue to follow the story. Uh, you know, I I I'm sorry to sound like a
broken record, but please do try to filter out all this noise about these negotiations, these offers going back and forth. While I completely understand
why the Iranian government is engaging in these discussions, even if there's only a 5% chance of them succeeding, as I've said before, it's the responsible
thing for the Iranian government to engage. But the overwhelming likelihood is that there will be no peace deal. And
even if one is signed, it's a virtual certainty that both the United States and Israel will violate it six ways from Sunday. And uh this thing is not going
to end by means of any uh you know collegial negotiation. Uh I think we are
headed into uh extraordinarily turbulent waters economically. This is Demetri Lcera signing off from Kalamata, Greece on May 28th, 2026.
